Swing trading journal - US stocks

[Leth]

"As for price analysis, I assume you mean the ask/bid to try and determine if the stock is going to be dumped or accumulated,"

Price analysis is even simpler than that. It means checking to see if its going up or down in its current state. Trying to determine if a stock is "going to be" dumped or accumulated is considered predicting which is consistantly impossible. Just my opinion of course.

Leth

[milo]

can you determine whether a stock IS being accumulated or distributed by analyzing price action? what should I look for?

[Leth]

this is going to sound like a smart ass answer milo...but i assure you its not.
if price is going up, markets are being accumulated; if price is going down, markets are being distributed.
here is an article than can explain it in more detail than i ever could:
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.p...tribution_line

later trader

[milo]

you are right. but I have also seen cases where stocks keep going up, very often on lighter volume, and then all of a sudden they start retracing. Then, if you look the charts you notice that while the stock was making higher/lower highs/lows, indicators such as RSI or stochastics were showing divergences. That is, they were doing the opposite of what price was doing. so it's not always true that stocks going up are being accumulated and viceversa

[Leth]

Originally Posted by milo

you are right. but I have also seen cases where stocks keep going up, very often on lighter volume, and then all of a sudden they start retracing. Then, if you look the charts you notice that while the stock was making higher/lower highs/lows, indicators such as RSI or stochastics were showing divergences. That is, they were doing the opposite of what price was doing. so it's not always true that stocks going up are being accumulated and viceversa

i agree 100% milo.
if one decides to use these type of indicators (volume indicators included)..which i personally do not...you can expect thier readings to often conflict with price. i personally follow pure long term price action so i dont have to experience such confliction. price never lies as they say.
also, backtesting indicators can show you how reliable they really are.

Leth

[FallingKnife]

can you suggest a good read on price analysis?

[Leth]

Originally Posted by FallingKnife

can you suggest a good read on price analysis?

do you consider yourself long term or short term?

[TheBirdLives]

Originally Posted by BlueChips

trends and price analysis is what traders should concentrate mostly on. it's useless to waste your time trying to trade trendless markets, IMHO

As Jed Clampett would say, "Weeell, dogies!"

There are trends, and there are trends.
At the market level, the trend may be sideways.
At the stock level, the monthly, weekly, and daily trends may be up or down...or a combination thereof.

I agree, BlueChips, that it is useless to enter a swing trade if there is no discernible trend. That said, I suggest that the trend is where [and when] you find it.

This is a "swing trading" thread, so intra-day "trends" are, I suppose, not relevant.

That said, I suggest that trends, and swing trades, are linked to periodicity.

• The economies of China and India will grow significantly over the next several decades.
• The European economy needs to extend its work-week and deal with Islamification if it is to grow in the next decade.
• Housing prices in the USA will continue to struggle for the next few years.
• Financial firms will face reserve challenges in 2008.
• Commodity based emerging markets will decline if the dollar and the US economy declines in the next few months.
• Ratings changes and other "news" of the week cause a momentum to buy or sell.

So, the game is to match trends to time frames, and trade within the time frames.

NOTE: I'm posting this to see if it rings true. I think there is a kernel of truth here, but I'm not sure that I'm saying it right. My concern is that we will be looking at sideways "trends" in the months to come. I'm trying to figure how to trade a sideways trend.

In any event, thanks, BlueChips, for your post. I believe what you posted is true — and you made me think.

[FallingKnife]

Originally Posted by Leth

do you consider yourself long term or short term?

hello leth,

I consider myself a short term trader. by short term I mean 3-4 months max

[Leth]

Originally Posted by FallingKnife

hello leth,

I consider myself a short term trader. by short term I mean 3-4 months max

I can't recommend any books on the subject being that i only recommend books on psychology. But pure price analysis uses two things for your signals...Moving Averages or Channel Breakouts. All you have to do is figure out your optimal parameter settings, what equities/markets you want to trade, and apply risk management. I use channel breakouts for my signals because Moving Averages Lag a bit too much for my taste. If you do decide to use MAs...you might consider checking out a 15/50 EMA crossover (this was my first money making signal setup; long and short. dont be afraid to use leverage). There are as many systems and settings as there are traders, however, there are a very few traders who approach the market with good risk management, which is the single most important aspect to your trading survival (by the time most traders figure this out, its to late).
You might consider checking out this page for more insight on risk management: http://www.seykota.com/tribe/risk/index.htm

no advice, just perspective.