Who's going long here?

[Mr. Blonde]

Here we are at major support on the S&P500 @ 1380. Going long here has worked very well on each of the previous pullbacks to this level. Yeah, I know that this will work until does not and I know that this time it's different, this time we are really in trouble because of the news about xyz, etc, etc. But is everyone then going short here? Looks like more upside than downside to me, I'd be looking to go long on some solid but oversold stocks if/when the spooz goes to 1390 convincingly today. Probably will require a strong stomach and some real conviction, but buying dips and pullbacks was never for the faint of heart anyway, was it?

I concede that hedging with options would likely be much less risky, but I've not dabbled in that field yet, so I'll just yap about that which I know at least a little bit about...or not, if I'm wrong.

[Kingfisher]

With the Fed about to make a cut in rates, my guess .50 I think the market will go up from here. At least in the short term. I made some buys at close yesterday in my 401K. I like these levels. One was a low back to early 2007.

If the market breaks through these supports, the bottom will fall out imo. Time will tell. I still have plenty of funds to invest if it does, but this is a good level to begin buying back in.

[aiki14]

Originally Posted by Mr. Blonde

Here we are at major support on the S&P500 @ 1380. Going long here has worked very well on each of the previous pullbacks to this level. Yeah, I know that this will work until does not and I know that this time it's different, this time we are really in trouble because of the news about xyz, etc, etc. But is everyone then going short here? Looks like more upside than downside to me, I'd be looking to go long on some solid but oversold stocks if/when the spooz goes to 1390 convincingly today. Probably will require a strong stomach and some real conviction, but buying dips and pullbacks was never for the faint of heart anyway, was it?

I concede that hedging with options would likely be much less risky, but I've not dabbled in that field yet, so I'll just yap about that which I know at least a little bit about...or not, if I'm wrong.

I have a short bias currently, so I buy calls to hedge short positions. Looks like calls on the VIX might be a good play as well.
I think this earnings season is going to be rife with bad news, and the market is very jittery. Sharp downside moves are likely.
The FOMC continues to confound the markets with confusing talk and diffuse promises of action.
If I was a long term investor I wouldn't do anything here other than try to up my contributions to my investments to dollar cost average. I am buying calls out to Jan '09 because I am long biased for that time frame.

[Soverus Khan]

Exceptional volatility intra-day. Few more weeks of these type of days and I'll meet my profit target for the year! Profits normally ear-marked for investments are sitting in cash.

But for swings or positions (not my strongest area), here's a few I am looking at:

DRYS at $51.50
ASTI at $18.80
NVDA at $26.25
EXM at $27
AKNS at 8.80

1 to 5 days only. Scale in as momentum gains. Stop at a base of $200-$300 (relative to shares) per trade because of downside risk and the speed which it may fall.

Bracket all fed news / economic news (SDS/QID/TWM/SKF/AAPL/GOOG/GS)...weighted on upside momentum. Tough this week with news at 0830E.

[Mr. Blonde]

SLB is looking tempting here, probably a bit early yet but it looks to be well oversold. I'm not listening to media fundamentals here, more of a basic trend/chart type approach. I can't really put it into words, regardless time will tell.

[BlueChips]

Originally Posted by Soverus Khan

Exceptional volatility intra-day. Few more weeks of these type of days and I'll meet my profit target for the year! Profits normally ear-marked for investments are sitting in cash.

But for swings or positions (not my strongest area), here's a few I am looking at:

DRYS at $51.50
ASTI at $18.80
NVDA at $26.25
EXM at $27
AKNS at 8.80

1 to 5 days only. Scale in as momentum gains. Stop at a base of $200-$300 (relative to shares) per trade because of downside risk and the speed which it may fall.

Bracket all fed news / economic news (SDS/QID/TWM/SKF/AAPL/GOOG/GS)...weighted on upside momentum. Tough this week with news at 0830E.

you have almost reached your profit target for 2008? what would that be, if I may ask? do you trade full time?

[Kingfisher]

Originally Posted by aiki14

I have a short bias currently, so I buy calls to hedge short positions. Looks like calls on the VIX might be a good play as well.
I think this earnings season is going to be rife with bad news, and the market is very jittery. Sharp downside moves are likely.
The FOMC continues to confound the markets with confusing talk and diffuse promises of action.
If I was a long term investor I wouldn't do anything here other than try to up my contributions to my investments to dollar cost average. I am buying calls out to Jan '09 because I am long biased for that time frame.

Aiki

This is exactly what I'm attempting to do with my funds in my 401k. As I stated this is a good place to start. I do have cash to double down or more if need be. I am just testing the waters here. To be real, my purchase yesterday and today is less than 8% of total funds. I researched my buy levels and they actually went back to Oct, 2006 level. It appears that all of 2007 gains ar lost at this point less dividends for those that rode the bull.

I honestly think anything the FOMC does will be short lived and the market level will find its place regardless of what the FOMC intends to occur. IMO the FOMC is a band-aid on a bullet hole these days.

I truly believe I witnessed the support levels broken today even if it was slight. This is a warning to me of what is to come. I don't think this will be another .com downfall. But their is more downside in the future. For those that are new to the market look over the 1999-2000 market history for the .com era.

[Soverus Khan]

Originally Posted by BlueChips

you have almost reached your profit target for 2008? what would that be, if I may ask? do you trade full time?

Blue, I can't help but feel I am responding to Mr. Bean. lol

I trade my own acount. Goals are income based as this is a "job" (and the ultimate competition).

December and the month of January have been exceptional on riding the volatility. December was actually gravy and allowed me quite a bit of time to sit in on chats and post to many forums and bulletin boards.

If the next few weeks produce this kind of volatility, I will meet my goals that much earlier. I'll keep my goals and income to myself, sorry.

As I was discussing with a member in a chat room early today, my confidence in size of the intial "buy" has more than doubled. As I take a few hits, I will re-evaluate as in the past. Getting cocky is it's own downfall. The past several sessions have been well above my normal daily goals.

I made a comfortable amount early today and did not enter any of the trades I posted above.

Hope that "somewhat" answered your question????

[Mr. Blonde]

So 1390 didn't materialize in covincing fashion, just goes to show that trying to catch the very bottom without getting some type of confirmation that you feel comfortable with can be hazardous to your health. Obviously my upside vs downside view was disproved, but now I'm left wondering how much more downside before at least a dead cat bounce? Any input on that?

SLB was good for not much more than a quick intraday play, granted that holding overnight would have yielded more profit this am but I would not have done so in this market. I did notice that WNR didn't slip much today, I've been keeping tabs on it since the middle of '07. (I seem to be alone there) It's good for trading, but might finally be getting to the point where one could start a long position for a speculative refiner play. TSO was another refiner with a neglible loss on the day, if crude starts a pullback in earnest while following the market down we are at a good time of year for the refiners to capitalize on this situation, imho.

Still a trader's market, tougher time for investors though.

Disclaimer: I sometimes forget that not everyone knows that I'm currently unable to trade (due to some personal legal issues and covering my butt), so I'm just posting what I would be doing and thinking if I were, in order to keep myself in the right mindset until I return to trading. I just did not want to give the impression that I was physically trading as it may mislead some readers.

[Soverus Khan]

Good ranges today in aapl. Couple of 4 dollar moves that were relatively easy to forecast then some setups on solars. No positions or swings. Long term acount is a little annoying. OK, maybe a lot as the old standbys are giving in as well. Dividends taxed at 15% still let you sleep!